Rewriting History: Understanding Historical Catastrophic Cyber Economic Losses

Abstract

Cyber security strategy suffers from a gaping hole in the historical literature: Estimated economic impact. The ongoing debate over the potential severity of different forms of cyber attack, including cyber war, rages on without any quantitative reference points. While a lack of historical data is usually offered and accepted as a reason for this, the path of least resistance overlooks a rich history of twenty-four major events over the past twenty-five years. This article offers the first such analysis of the estimated economic losses from historical catastrophic cyber attacks. The reliance on publicly available estimates results in a complicated and nuanced process for developing the dataset, but accepting the significant limitations in the data and thus the study on which it is based yields a starting point not just for improved cyber security scholarship but also deeper analysis and ongoing refinement of the underlying data. Without data, study of the nexus of cyber security and economic security is an exercise in guesswork. Guesswork is not necessary, and this article provides the foundation for a new line of scholarship, not to mention improvements areas of ongoing study.